Personally I think you have the start of a nice application. Get to know the important attendings in your home department because they will be your biggest advocates when it comes time to apply. You have a strong research background, if you get involved with research at your school and can make a good impression, you will be in a great position. Work hard on all of your MS3 rotations, try to get as many honors as you can. Take step 2CK early, while you are fresh off rotations, and aim for a high score.

Honestly it is impossible to say where you will be competitive. You are still missing half of your application. Letters, clinical grades, ortho research, step 2 all still pending. However, if you excel in most of those areas, and you rotate well, you should have a shot of going anywhere. Even at the most competitive programs, the highest step 1 cutoffs I have heard are in the 250 range for nonrotators (step 1 score much less important for rotator if they like you).