Dr. Levine,
I was wondering if you could provide some advice. I am from one of the Northeast schools and am going to be applying this fall after a year off for research (I will have at least 7 submissions/publications). I scored in the 210's for Step 1, but did well in CK with a score in the high 240's. I have a mix of high pass and pass (medicine, psych, peds) scores clinically. I will be taking a medicine sub I to rectify the grade. I have spoken to friends in this year's match and they recommended that I do an away at a program that I don't really have a shot at just for the LORs. Do you think that is a good idea? I want to do one away in the midwest another in the south and one in the northeast (outside of my home institution) to show programs that I am willing to travel anywhere. I know its a long shot for me to match, but do you think I have any shot? Any response is greatly appreciated. Thanks
Your probability of matching based on 2011 Charting Outcomes is about 45% just based on step I. With your otherwise strong application I think you are looking at about 50%. Obviously consider that 2012 will have slightly different stats (it is getting harder every year). So on one hand it will be harder than 50% to match in 2013. But you can improve your grades and do 3 "aways". And if you will be stellar on those aways that will bump your chances up a little bit.
So I think you are looking at 50/50 in 2013.
So don't panic, just do it.
Pick any place that interviews all the rotators.
You have no luxury to waise months on places that won't even interview you.
And yes a strong letter ("the best student I ever worked with") from a well known orthopod (world known) will make your chance of matching skyrocket.
So I would go to one super star (HSS, etc) program and be the best rotator ever.
And also I would go to two "lower tier" programs that will interview you for sure.
Looking into the future, if everything works out, you have like 75% chance of matching. If not (you will mess up on a rotation or won't improve your grades), you still have about 50%. I actually think you have less than 50% of you won't improve. If you won't improve, then you will demonstrate a trend of "poorer quality" applicant and that may drop your chances to like 25%.
So you can become a 75% chance applicant or you may become a 25% chance applicant, or you may stay around 50%.
So work hard, be nice, study; don't sleep, eat, or urinate; be there at 5 am, leave at 11 pm, stay on call every other night during all your 4 rotations (1 home, 3 aways). And you will make it.
Or just go into radiology. Cush lifestyle. They have a bunch of open spots year after year.
But since you are here. Chances are you will be gunning for Ortho. So good luck.
Easy gorilla, I have a little post-match euphoria too, but why would you answer a post addressed to Dr. Levine? As a fellow 4th year who just matched my advice to ADP2 is to completely disregard the percentages quoted and wait for a reply from someone on an admission committee not a medical student who just matched. I too have talked at length with my PD, done aways, interviewed at top programs, gone through the exhausting application/interview process and came out on the other side as a future orthopod but I have no clue where this other student is getting his percentages (25% or 75% etc). Tune this out, don't stress and wait for an opinion from someone who actually makes admission decisions, not opinions from us peons who aren't even lowly interns yet.
You should always choose your aways at places where you want to match - those 3 programs (your home and 2 aways typically) turn out to be the most likely place you'll match. So no I would not choose a program simply because you want a letter from a famous orthopaedic surgeon at that program.
Good luck to you in the upcoming match next year -
