JointDoctor,
I'm in the same annoying boat. I am freaking out a bit myself, but I did find some relief in some residents saying that they didn't get their interviews until late November. Hang in there playa', you're not alone.

Same boat.
248 Step 1, AOA, Research, honors in my important clerkships, high pass in the rest....
0 interviews.

Yeah its to early to hit the panic button...but damn let's get this ish moving .Men, its a new day for new opportunities...let's get get, get it!

There were several guys last year from my school that received late interviews and matched. These dudes were below average candidates too. I'm talking late december interview offers and 3 of them matched at these places. One dude had 1 or 2 interviews in late november, ended up with 10 interviews and matched.

My PD was saying their 2 criteria are board score and geographic location. Obviously you guys have the board scores. How many programs did you apply to in your region? Or probably more importantly, how many programs did you apply to that are in highly sought after cities/areas?

I'm a mid 230s, very close to AOA, one research project, strong letters applicant. So I'm average. I have 9 interviews, 2 from rotations, so 7 offers. These interviews aren't in what most would consider desirable locations. And the programs aren't huge academic centers filled with bow-tie wearing hot-shots. Although, for me they are desirable, I hate traffic, big city life, and bow-ties.

You guys will get interviews! You're all above average for ortho. I am assuming you applied to big name places in awesome cities. They will come and you will match!

They will come and you will match!

Why the F#@% would you say someting like that?

i have a couple of interviews, but I too have not heard from Hopkins (no yay or nay) and others. I applied to Ohio, and saw that they had sent out rejections and interviews, and still had not heard.... until yesterday. I email them asking them on my status, and they told me that they had sent out an invite!! and i never got it! don't know what's going on... getting paranoid that are they getting lost? does anyone have a similar experience?

They will come and you will match!

Why the F#@% would you say someting like that?

Why wouldn't you say something like that Agent13?

grappleman wrote]

That's a little bold. Seeing as how nearly 25% of US seniors who ranked at least 1 program DID NOT MATCH, you can't make any promises (esp when you are only an applicant).

I email them asking them on my status, and they told me that they had sent out an invite!! and i never got it!

Same thing happened to me last year except it was one of my aways so I checked into it pretty quickly. You never know...

I guess it was about 21%, looking at Charting Outcomes..but either way, that's more 1 in 5. That's a lot.

I guess it was about 21%, looking at Charting Outcomes..but either way, that's more 1 in 5. That's a lot.

21% is a significant number and it applies to the general applicant pool. If you look at other factors, 240+ has a 90% chance of matching and AOA gives you a 96% chance of matching.

although I wonder if these numbers also might be a little skewed. I'm not 100% positive where Charting Outcomes gets their data, but around graduation time last year my entire class received a survey from NRMP on our match experiences. Me, having been burned by the ortho match despite supposedly stellar stats, did not bother to fill out or return the survey. Significant bias may be at play here, so the numbers might not be as rosy as they seem.

21% is a significant number and it applies to the general applicant pool. If you look at other factors, 240+ has a 90% chance of matching and AOA gives you a 96% chance of matching.

Lies, damn lies and statistics!

Just because 96% of applicants with AOA matched, does not mean you have a 96% chance to match if you are AOA. Likewise for any other factor listed by the NRMP outcomes.

It is the whole picture...

i think he was just trying to be upbeat and optimistic. really, getting down on ourselves this early in the game isnt constructive. and boiled down to basest form, odds are more likely that one will match than that one won't match (i.e. according to above figures 79% do and 21% dont). so i guess i dont see the point in being too critical. he wasnt really making promises so much as trying to be encouraging. the sentiment was well-intended.

we're all under some level of stress right now peeps-- let's try not to heighten any of it if we can avoid it...

although I wonder if these numbers also might be a little skewed. I'm not 100% positive where Charting Outcomes gets their data, but around graduation time last year my entire class received a survey from NRMP on our match experiences. Me, having been burned by the ortho match despite supposedly stellar stats, did not bother to fill out or return the survey. Significant bias may be at play here, so the numbers might not be as rosy as they seem.

I would assume that the NRMP gets their data from the application process, and not returned surveys. Using surveys would lead to a significant bias as persons who matched would be more apt to return a survey. I hope that I am right.

I am curious as to why certain people with solid #'s didn't match. I have heard of 187's after 2 failed attempts at step 1 not matching, but I wonder why some of the 240+ applicants don't match. Perhaps they only ranked top programs that were out of their league?

21% is a significant number and it applies to the general applicant pool. If you look at other factors, 240+ has a 90% chance of matching and AOA gives you a 96% chance of matching.

Lies, damn lies and statistics!

Just because 96% of applicants with AOA matched, does not mean you have a 96% chance to match if you are AOA. Likewise for any other factor listed by the NRMP outcomes.

It is the whole picture...

A person who was elected into AOA likely has solid board scores, solid EC, solid grades, solid research etc... Obviously, this varies by the chapter. A lot of these things are sought after characteristics of an applicant into any residency position.

There is still a 1/25 chance that an AOA member will not match into orthopaedic surgery. There will certainly be people with 240+, AOA, research who don't match, but the point is that they are RARE.

although I wonder if these numbers also might be a little skewed. I'm not 100% positive where Charting Outcomes gets their data,

From the 2009 edition, the Charting Outcomes in the Match pubs get their data from the following-

"Combining data from the NRMP, the database of AAMC’s
Electronic Residency Application Service (ERAS), USMLE
scores made available by the National Board of Medical
Examiners (NBME) and the Educational Commission for
Foreign Medical Graduates (ECFMG), and other AAMC data
sources"

like they were stating before....its the whole picture......I know a guy with 260's (x2) and AOA who got 18 interviews yet did not match.......

I have found out very quickly that a high USMLE and AOA dont really guarantee anything....

Perhaps they only ranked top programs that were out of their league?

A common thought, but far from the truth. I can't speak for everyone, but I applied very broadly (in terms of both program prestige, curriculum, and geography) last year. I interviewed at all caliber of program and ranked every single program I interviewed at (17 total). Still no dice.

MisterMo...did you ever find out what went wrong?? Obviously you have a strong application to go on 17 interviews......

There is still a 1/25 chance that an AOA member will not match into orthopaedic surgery.

It's not 1/25. But I'm not going to bother with a stats lesson. Think what you like.

There will certainly be people with 240+, AOA, research who don't match, but the point is that they are RARE.

But that is the whole package, not just AOA. The fact that these factors are linked is why the NRMP data is hard to intrepret.