porkrinds,
I must admit I'm a little confused that in all your "searches" of the forums that you didn't run across anything to do with matching at what you term a "top tier" program.
I get a kick out of seeing these "chances" posts over and over again. It seems there are two types of posts including the "I know I have good stats, here they are, but please tell me I'm going to get in", and the "I know I don't have great stats, here they are, but please tell me people sometimes get in with poor stats." Most, like you, have "done the searches", but they post anyway as if to say, "I know, I know, but my situation is different." You must have noticed in your research that the answers to all such posts are exactly the same just stated a little differently. You yourself said you can bank on passing the screening criteria.
That is the other interesting part of your post. You're confident you'll get past the screening criteria, you've learned that the top tier programs are more about "who you know and not what you know". You know you need to get good LORs and you even have a plan for your next step which you form as a question, "should I meet with my Chairman and build rapport this early?" Well . . . yes, if you need someone to tell you that.
If you really do want advice, I'd have to agree with Agent13, that you should ensure that what you are looking for is found in what you term "top tier" programs. Those places certainly are top tier in terms of research, and have other advantages. However, the Central Montana type programs offer an operative and clinical training experience in a true community setting that all the research dollars in the world cannot buy. It depends on what you want.
You also mentioned your own "e-arrogance". If you really do want advice, I'd say try hiding that on your rotations and during the interviews. I don't know what personality they're after at those "top tier" places never having applied to them, but I'd imagine they are equally as turned off by the "e-arrogance" as we "non top tier" folks are.
Good luck with the match. I hope you get what you're looking for.