Another ortho chances question

60%

I bolded the key statement above. I don't think you can put something like this in percentages. So much of it seems to be random. In the Match thread here someone posted with a 210 on steps 1 and 2. So you see it is possible. I'd come up with a good backup plan though.

Thanks for the responses. I know I stated that i couldn't imagine myself doing anything else but i also need to be realistic. I have a family and I am one of the atypical older medical student. Taking a year off would be pretty rough on my family especially if I don't match.

If my chances are slim, I'd rather not put my family through any more hardship then they are already going through. Living on a single person's income is pretty hard as is.

My grandpa was a great card player and he always said "A bird in hand is worth two in the bush". If you don't think your chances are reasonable, why would you risk the success/happiness of your kids?? If you <<chokes>> "Loooove Ortho" (<-hate that stuff), then you're probably an idiot if you'd put that ahead of your family if you're really live-or-die based on a year of not having a job.

Most folks I know liked several specialties, and it's weird how some qualities overlap. For instance, in many respects Orthopaedics is a jack-of-all trades discipline, just like Family Med can be (if you're GOOD at it). If I'd missed out here, I'd be the crackerjack PCP in a posh community which, as much as I hate to say it, may actually end up doing comparatively-well in the new HObamacare system.

Most folks on the forum know I don't say this very often, but your chances appear slim. At my program, there's a soft cut-off of Step1=230, so unless you're the firstborn son of our PD, there's essentially zero chance you'd even get an interview. It's not an elite thing, it's a numbers thing. Just saying...

I'd welcome rebuttals.

While I am just a measly applicant, I agree with Merlin that your Q can't really be answered here because you are a unique person with a story that none of us fully know.

Objectively...from charting outcomes, more people with a score in your range matched than did not match, so that is comforting. Although we do know that the match is getting more competitive each year, so who knows what the ratio is or will be for our app cycle. Also, from charting outcomes you have a 60% chance of matching with ur score. So both stats are favorable, but that is the best that can be said I guess.

And just anecdotally, at my west coast program, my PD said he doesn't look at anything below a 230, unless the student rotates there.

To echo the others, my home program cut off is 235, up from 230 last year (damn average score keep creeping up!). Home students and rotators get some what of a break, but not much (~ 5-10 points I would guess from chatting with ad com faculty). Some places ask for your Step 1 when you apply for Sub-Is and reject people that don't meet their cut off.

But then again, there are obviously several programs where Step 1 is not as important a criteria because people match every year with lower scores. How do you find these programs? Apply very very broadly and hope you get interviews.

But to give you an idea of chances. Of the US seniors this past match who actually got at least one interview in ortho (and therefore ranked at least one ortho program), only ~75% matched into an ortho spot (~600 of 800).