I always get a kick out of these "chances" posts. I often wonder what the motive is. There are countless other such posts with multiple replies to each on this site. Type in "chances" in a search, and you can review all the opinions given by mostly well meaning folks most of whom do not now nor ever will sit on an admission panel for any orthopaedic program. There is some good advice there in the midst of a heavy load of crap and opinion.
The other option is to sit down with the program director, chairman, other orthopod at your school and ask what your chances are and where you need to improve. You can also do this at many away rotations believe it or not. The advantages to this approach include face time with some people you should be getting to know, advice from people who might actually be able to help you do something about potential weaknesses, advice from people who actually sit on the admission panel and interview potential residents and therefore know what is important to get in and what is not, advice from people who actually got into ortho (rather than, as is often the case on this site, people who are applying just like you). Believe it or not, most people on this site don't actually know what it takes to get into ortho even if they got in themselves no matter how interesting or reasonable their responses sound (again, do the search for some entertainment). I include myself in that bunch. However, you have people available to you who do know what it takes and what your chances are and who can help you be a better applicant. If you really want to do ortho start talking to those people. Good luck.