To all hopeful applicants:
I want to share some advice that no one shared with me last year: you should have a back-up plan for the Match. Getting electronic "pats on the back" via a "what are my chances?" thread is fine for the ego, but you should ALWAYS have a back-up plan, no matter what anyone says and no matter what your CV says. Not having one is setting yourself up for potential disaster. I remember being told multiple times by different faculty that I would "easily match in my top 3" and have my "choice of residency"...
According to the NRMP match results from 2011, 670 positions were offered and there were 820 US senior applicants. The probability of matching (assuming it was random and ignoring IAs) was 0.817. Factoring in IA's lowers the probability even more. What this means is that even if you were only competing against US seniors, 1 out of 5 of you won't match. Not the best odds, but it is what it is. The point: there's a decent chance you won't match, even if everything says you should. Here are my stats:
-Public midwest school
-240 Step 1
-247 Step 2
-5x first author publications
-Mostly honors/high pass
-2x away rotations with honors (one at a top 5 program)
Interview stats:
-Applied: 45
-Offered: 15
-Interviewed: 12 (mostly midwest, both academic and community programs)
-Ranked: 11 (glad I didn't rank 12 looking back)
End result: didn't match.
I was stunned, to say the least. It had never occurred to me that I would need a back-up plan because of what I had on my CV and the number of interviews I went on. In the end, I chose not to scramble and was fortunate enough to get into an MPH program at my med school that has been great. Some of my colleagues had MPH or MHA plans already set up going into the match because they thought they might need to fall back on them (which they did) but I didn't anticipate needing one.
So whether it is writing an (insert other specialty) personal statement, figuring out potential additional degree options, or investigating research fellowship opportunities, I recommend you have something in mind. My intention with this post wasn't to scare anyone - it was just to make sure you keep at least one foot grounded in reality. Just like when you're in the OR, make sure you have back-up plans "B" and "C" ready just in case "A" doesn't work out.
Best of luck to all!
