It seems that if the programs barely go below their top spots, they must know who is going to say "yes". Even the top programs are still vying for the top candidates, so it would seem that they wouldnt be able to predict exactly who would want to go to HSS vs Pitt vs Stanford etc.
Is it the post-interview contact that helps programs definitively gauge an applicant's interest?
In talking with current residents at my program, it seems like a lot of them really committed to this program and made visits back after interview to demonstrate commitment. Is that true all over the country? Will we essentially pick the program thats number one and court them up through Match Day?