No interviews!

The NRMP stats are not real.

No kidding, you'll have so much smoke blown up your ass, you'll feel like a pig at a tailgate. But in the end it don't mean crap.

I'm sorry if I was too harsh yeasterday. It wasn't long ago that I went through this process and I remember how agonizing it is up until Black Monday.

With that said, one shouldn't tell ANYONE, regardless of their stats, that they will match. I know everyone wants to encourage each other, but I don't see what good that does. You don't have to look too hard to find stories of stellar applicants who didn't match. I personlly know firsthand people exactly like this. When you go on interviews (and yes, it is early, you in all liklihood WILL get interviews) attendings, residents, etc will suck up to you and throw all this BS about how a great applicatn you are and how you're such a lock to match. You just have to brush it off and keep going, because until that day in March when the results are unveiled even they don't know what they're talking about.

Also you can't believe everything you read here. I just got an interview from Iowa yesterday and they still had all dates open for choice. Many schools give out interviews in waves.

Also, note that you are grossly misquoting me. Note how I never said poor grades (since that is usually a requirement for AOA) nor did I say anything about poor clinical performance (which is also directly linked to AOA via clinical grades).

Ease off the hyperboles please.

Back at ya babe.
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Wow, impressive stuff Ilizarovian. I hope that you do not fall through the cracks this year.

Not sure why you are even arguing but either way I doubt that you will find any AOA members with such stats (210, no research, poor grades, poor letters because of poor clinical performance). Most schools invite students to apply after they have met certain cutoffs. After that, most schools tend to rank applicants for acceptance based on

1) grades
2) step 1 score
3) CV Review (broken down into categories of leadership, community service, research)
4) Peer vote

Either way, I don't have the energy to argue this topic as it will not have any effect on whether or not you or I match. Just going to wait until match day-best of luck to you.

i anyone bothered to read the NRMP charting the outcomes and how it is actually made..
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it's from the nrmp/eras statistics. The stats are *very* real.

Oh, and I was one of the applicants with 260, many honors, hit all of the stats, and did not match.

I ranked 17 places.

The statistic makes me cry (literally.)

Everyone says "you fell through the cracks"... Who knows.

I have 5 interviews so far this year.. we'll see.

It's too early to tell. You guys are all freaking out because most other specialties have given out there interviews.

REMEMBER. it's Nov 2nd that mspe comes out.. it's NOV 11th!.. 8 days later.. including 2 days which were weekend.

Most places haven't even distributed the application packets out..

Enjoy the frustration.. it's random.. and it only takes one rank to match!

agreed-- seems like programs (at least many of the ones i applied to) have been slower getting stuff out this year. a lot of mine havent shown up on the interview offer thread yet whereas they had already last year. that doesnt necessarily mean the programs havent sent something out, but i think that with all the people who visit this site, things are usually disclosed as they occur.

im also surprised today is seemingly so slow. i guess folks are taking the holiday off.

Also it depends on where you applied to. There are many MANY programs that just haven't sent out thier stuff yet. I of course didnt match last year but at this point i also had 0 interviews and ended up with 10 myself.

And around the circle we go.
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Hence why it's not an independent variable and why you cannot say having AOA gives you a 96% chance of matching.

If you have AOA, a 210, no research, and crappy letters, your chance of matching is not 96%.

Doing a 2x2 square gives a relative risk of 7.32, ie. regardless of other outcome parameters, being AOA increases your chance of matching 7.32 fold. The question of course becomes determining your pre-AOA matching probability based off other parameters, which is basically impossible to do since many aspects of matching can not me numerically charted (MSPE, dean's leter, interview, etc.)

hey guys,

I didn't mean to ruffle any feathers, I'm genuinely sorry to offend. Just trying to keep things loose with a little positive thinking!

As I stated in my post, a person elected into AOA likely has high board scores, research, great grades, etc.. That's the reason for election in the first place.

at the end of the day statistics dun mean a thing if you are the one not receiving a letter on match day.

AOA is not an independent variable nor is it the single variable in the model. You cannot make a statement regarding absolute probablity. You can make a statement about relative probability though. Ie. you cannot say someone with AOA has 96% chance of matching, but you can say they have X times better odds of matching than not matching. In that case all variables and confounding factors are represented in both groups.

Never did, never will. I contacted all the programs I interviewed at and about half responded, all with something along the lines of "Fell through the cracks", "just missed by X spots", or "incredibly competitive year".

The system is unpredictable, but it SHOULD work out for most of us here. There are no guarantees though, regardless of your stats, so you need to take all aspects of the application process very seriously. The rest is out of your hands.

Why don't you school me then? I am not a huge stats person and would humbly admit being wrong if in fact I was.

Based on the NRMP Charting Outcomes 2009 (), there were 744 applicants to ORS. 586 matched, 158 did not match (79% matched). Of the 744 applicants, 169 were AOA members (23%). 163 of the 169 AOA applicants matched (96%).
24/25=96%, 1/25=4%


Now, we all know that there are many factors involved with residency selection. We don't have the luxury of knowing the results in the match. Best of luck to everyone.

It's not 1/25. But I'm not going to bother with a stats lesson. Think what you like.
But that is the whole package, not just AOA. The fact that these factors are linked is why the NRMP data is hard to intrepret.

MisterMo...did you ever find out what went wrong?? Obviously you have a strong application to go on 17 interviews......