A search for these "elite programs" that you refer to and a look at their websites may reveal what type of med schools their residents come from (if it's included on the website). If you haven't observed so far, just because you didn't go to some Ivy League school doesn't mean you're not smart or that you're not gonna get into a good med school. The same holds true for orthopaedic surgery residencies. Some of the best residents in my program didn't go to "top med schools."
However, one very well-known chairman did tell me that one of the factors that comes into play in their selection process is the med school that the person came from....ie if they know about the school and attending at the ortho program at that school. So in your case, if you're from a little known state school in the midwest, chances are some big name east coast programs may not be as familiar with your school (unless they've had a previous resident from your school). What can you do to counter this? Rotate at some of the programs in the east coast that you're thinking about. Get letters from attendings at these programs that say that you're a strong student, hard-worker, etc. This will prove to other programs that you're legit.
In my opinion publications aren't that important. If you've got them, good. It'll help your application. If you don't, then you don't. At least have done some orthopaedic research that you can talk about during your interviews. That's all that matters.
If you haven't seen it, there is an article by Bernstein et al, in the Nov 2002 issue of JBJS entitled Orthopaedic Resident Selection Criteria that was a survey of program directors about what factors they considered important in resident selection. Read it.
And don't stress. I wasn't AOA. I didn't have a 262 Step I and yes, I am an orthopaedic surgery resident at a good residency program.